There’s a taste in my mouth, as desperation takes hold –Joy Division
Trump’s self-image as the consummate deal-maker has its advantages and its disadvantages. His willingness to bargain with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, for instance, promises to break the current administration’s determination to keep the slaughter going–if an act of war party desperation between now and the inauguration doesn’t succeed in queering the possibility of peace.*
But Trump’s faith in his dealmaking abilities also means he’s more likely to bargain away his voters’ mandate. This is of course assuming he intends, or intended, to honor it in the first place. Trump loves populist rhetoric because it’s won him the presidency twice; populist governance perhaps not so much. The difference is between the instant gratification of adoring crowds on the campaign trail and governing, where gratification is long deferred or never forthcoming.
Talk is cheap and in Trump’s case the action he promises may not even be possible. He may in fact be counting on the impossibility of his promises. As absolution for his previous failures, the hopeful refrain we hear now, “this time will be different”, is lent plausibility by the reality we witnessed in 2016, when the system formed like a tumor around the unwelcome cells of Trump and populism. The dejection and demoralization of the system’s media personalities now gives hope (and a good deal of entertainment) to those who see in Trump revolutionary change, but we can expect those enemies in the true commanding heights–those above lowly functionaries like Kamala Harris and television’s talking heads, those who are writing the checks–are made of sterner stuff. True power abides like the seasons, and this time there will be no next time.
But also we must account for the very real possibility–some would say certainty–that Trump was in fact merely allowed to win this time, that regarding presidential elections now the fix is always in, or always in reserve, and in this case the fix (as exemplified by polls and a media chorus about her “flawless” campaign) was withdrawn and the voters were not impeded.
One thing is clear, the Democrats lost the confidence of the Israel lobby and Zionist-leaning donors, suffering from both a lack of leadership above and a base below, of younger leftists and non-whites who are culturally foreigners, that increasingly despises Israel and its actions. If American politics are now a veiled battle between pro-Israel factions, dove and hawk, the Republicans represent the hawks, who are currently in ascendance.
That Donald Trump enters office “the most pro-Israel president ever” is not to be dismissed out of hand, no matter how much one is committed to resisting “conspiracy theories”. (Why one would be so committed to that after the last few years, other than faltering mental acuity due to age, is beyond me.)
There is no accountability where there is no one to hold to account. Trump is, as in 2016, a boon for his enemies, despite the histrionics of (ironically) low information media personalities who don’t understand the game. The specter of Trump as dictator is invaluable in manipulating the ill-informed and emotional, enabling all manner of censorship and public acceptance of, for instance, extreme Covid policies cast as the “scientific” alternative to Trump’s supposed denialism (despite Trump’s implication in the whole sorry story through Operation Warp Speed). Trump worked wonders for his putative enemies, creating among the “liberal” set strange new respect for the CIA and FBI, enthusiasm for censorship and skepticism toward democracy itself.
Because the establishment doesn’t accept the legitimacy of Trump or his policy proposals, there’s no one to hold him to account for failing to deliver on them–including his supposed anti-interventionism in foreign policy. Equally terrified of populism and of peace, Trump’s powerful enemies leave that money on the table. This leaves only the “far” right to hold him to his word.
But Trump’s already closed the deal with his voters. Negotiations are ended. In addition to the inherent disadvantage of electoral politics—that citizens grant their vote up front, left to hope politicians deliver on their promises—Trump enters office this time a lame duck from the start. Trump has been paid and is at his leisure. A glorious thing it would be if he somehow decided to betray his donors rather than his voters, but there’s no chance of that; you paid nothing to vote after all, but donors ponied up serious cash. Trump the businessman respects that.
So, promises aside, what exactly is the deal Trump is granting in return for your vote? What is the bargain voters have won, now taking shape with his cabinet selections?
It appears the Trump administration will wage political war on “woke” policies at home and wage literal war for Israel abroad, with the outside chance of some economic populism in the form of tariffs.
But I must concede it’s only a sizable fraction of his base he stands to betray and not the majority. The true-believers and most fervent of his supporters, the Fox News viewers and anons posting from behind body-builder avatars on X, are getting exactly what they ordered. They love America and Israel (not necessarily in that order) and they hate wokism and Muslims.
I’ve written before about the cultivation after October 7 of that pro-Israel pro-Trump faction through everything from the rise of Chris Rufo to the belated celebration of Steve Sailer and “race realism”–denigrating Arabs and Muslims and revering Jewish IQ. Operation Al Aqsa Flood and the panic it’s inspired in Zionists and diaspora Jews alike may have more to do with Trump’s victory than anything else, as witnessed by the conversion of Bill Ackman to enthusiastic Trump supporter.
The cabinet picks indicate Trump intends to pivot away from the proxy war on Russia via Ukraine to support for Israel’s military expansion in the Middle East—note how this gibes with the views of his least favorite pick, Marco Rubio, obsessively devoted to Israel but skeptical of our involvement in Ukraine.
The shift is embodied by Pete Hegseth, tapped for Defense Secretary, a combat veteran and Christian Zionist who argued for bombing Iran after Trump assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and for the construction of the Third Temple on the site of Al Aqsa Mosque. Hegseth has written about detrimental woke policies in the military and opposes women in combat. His role is to shape up a degenerate military and its leadership ahead of war with Iran.
Curiously the cabinet is shaping up to be far less Jewish than we’ve come to expect, while being more ferociously Zionist than we could have ever feared, with the risible Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel.
Most of the worst nominees–Elise Stefanik, Huckabee, Rubio, Mike Waltz–will sail through confirmation. Those that represent the people’s end of the bargain will have a harder time. Robert F Kennedy Jr could be sunk by Republicans beholden to Big Ag. The nomination of Jay Bhattacharya to lead the National Institutes of Health probably has better chances, and I expect the doctor to school his challengers in the Senate in entertaining fashion. This is by far Trump’s best pick and welcome in particular because Trump is willing to abandon somewhat his promotion of Operation Warp Speed as a first-term accomplishment. Bhattacharya will be in a position to select the next head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Anthony Fauci’s old post from where he was the de facto overlord of the nation’s health bureaucracy despite being ostensibly subordinate the the director of the NIH.
There’s a lot more support for Trump’s worst instincts than for his best where it counts, in the halls of power and the minds of donors. Where there is already a powerful if largely hidden impetus, such as with war for Israel, he will be allowed to succeed, while where the genuinely powerful are opposed or indifferent he will be ferociously opposed or left to succeed or fail on his own merits–such as with the election. If Trump has a mandate from voters it is for economic nationalism, and opposition to that is unfortunately bi-partisan. The worst-case but likeliest scenario is “centrists” uniting to support Trump’s worst Zionist impulses and uniting to oppose his best populist impulses.
This administration will be closer to Israel than any before without meaningful opposition to that aspect. Now the faction most likely to save us from war with Iran might be Benjamin Netanyahu’s political opponents in Israel and our fate may hinge on Bibi’s prospects in his current corruption trial. Should his opponents manage to unseat Netanyahu, perhaps then all bets are off. Whatever opposition to war with Iran in Israel (and I haven’t a clue) is likely counting on and contributing to his conviction.
Donald Trump might still pull back on his own, he might still be trying to give his donors everything they want short of war with Iran, he might still experience a conversion and turn about, but at the moment everything we see suggests a second Trump administration gearing up to send the US military into the breach on behalf of Israel yet again.
One problem is his commitment to Israel looks far more solid than his commitment to us. I find his use of the kitschy anti-Christian satire and pro-sodomy anthem YMCA unfortunate, but maybe Trump has been signaling the truth to us the whole time: you will get screwed, but isn’t this fun? check on in…
*I’d like to re-introduce here the classic verb usage of “queer” as to spoil something’s prospects. Oh happy day that will be when “gay” and “queer” are restored to their traditional meanings and the current definitions are relegated to being listed as “archaic”–Merriam Webster’s online dictionary currently defines the verb form of “queer” as, basically, to make something gay as hell (lot of that going around) with the traditional meaning above perched on the transitional edge of the remainder bin as “old fashioned”.
untethered 